Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab90ba35feb3121bd5a0b2644eb1565cf69e05b804e5491138bb6b3c90af71ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,462$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.17 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,622$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,315$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 17c | 1,106$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,020$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 17c | 976.91$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 18c | 647.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 72c | 574.68$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 20c | 545.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 19c | 491.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 24c | 490$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 14c | 489.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 16c | 437.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 427.66$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 20c | 411.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 361.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 80c | 288.2$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 26c | 276.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 251.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…775dbacked No | 75c | 249$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 28c | 238.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…07aebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 10c | 199.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 30c | 195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 187.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 12c | 171.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 164.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 153.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 69c | 150.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 150.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 146.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 108.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…812bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 98.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked Yes | 12c | 98.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…99bbbacked Yes | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Yes | 12c | 83.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8528backed Yes | 26c | 74.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…9f24backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 63.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…6f64backed No | 70c | 57.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 80c | 33.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 73c | 23.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.