Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c5ef047286ceec060fcf0a990a8db6531dd5c7c7777099ae8f7333106a2844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 75c | 4,054$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.09 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 80c | 3,889$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.5 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 78c | 1,792$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.39 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 21c | 1,673$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.79 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,607$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.92 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 19c | 1,355$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 21c | 1,331$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.42 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,140$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 27c | 773.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked Yes | 18c | 659$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 17c | 568$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 25c | 520.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 24c | 425.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 29c | 422.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 410.02$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 20c | 399.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 22c | 355.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…ac6ebacked No | 75c | 337$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 26c | 328.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 290$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 284.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 66c | 279$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 32c | 257.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 247.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 244.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…8df0backed Yes | 21c | 240.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 74c | 234.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 230.18$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 229.49$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 76c | 219.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…5160backed No | 77c | 219$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 11c | 212.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…cafcbacked Yes | 20c | 206.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 203.91$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 21c | 176.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 12c | 152.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…f7ffbacked Yes | 23c | 130.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 78c | 128.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 125.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 8c | 122.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 21c | 112$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 74c | 109.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 16c | 102.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 28c | 101.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…495cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 20c | 98.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 24c | 97.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…760fbacked Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed No | 79c | 76.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 17c | 60.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 26c | 58.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…6f64backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 77c | 38.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 79c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 80c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 78c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…3b92backed No | 76c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…74e0backed No | 74c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…48b2backed No | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.