Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd546a56bf05e82a844aefc4c292e9500ba68edea768ddc60328399f101d63e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 3c | 2,340$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 1,185$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 1,086$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,054$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 999.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 976$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 23c | 885.37$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.81 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 2c | 882.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 629.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45eb…20cdbacked Yes | 8c | 581.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 439.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 8c | 405.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 392.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 6c | 346.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…cfe2backed Yes | 6c | 342.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…bfbabacked Yes | 7c | 323.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…7278backed Yes | 5c | 305.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06e…05abbacked Yes | 6c | 296.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…c9bebacked Yes | 9c | 274.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…ebdabacked Yes | 10c | 192.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…37f1backed Yes | 10c | 188.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 178.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…c586backed Yes | 28c | 173.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…75adbacked Yes | 7c | 160.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 12c | 158.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 24c | 143.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…3de7backed Yes | 10c | 121.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e9…5031backed Yes | 9c | 121.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…6faebacked Yes | 13c | 115.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…ccbcbacked Yes | 33c | 113.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Yes | 13c | 111.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 36c | 82.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked No | 76c | 71.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed Yes | 36c | 68.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…1003backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 56.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 32c | 55.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 20c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 20c | 51.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 21c | 51.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…6282backed No | 65c | 50.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…6170backed Yes | 30c | 49.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…d3a1backed Yes | 30c | 47.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…3b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 44.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…2b6cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.