Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405a55027df18d91120727817d26d1bc139916fb7b1e1c2c486d4599f4960b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 934.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 918.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 813.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 736.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 732.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 703.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 695.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 684.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…dfadbacked Yes | 8c | 396.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 8c | 387.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 7c | 376.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 346$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 9c | 287.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 279.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 5c | 248.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 6c | 247.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 243.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 7c | 164.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 159.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 10c | 147.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 139.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a59…9a2fbacked Yes | 18c | 130.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 128.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 18c | 101.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…255dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 80c | 88.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 63.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 62.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 77c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 77c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…fd3fbacked No | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 78cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.