Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93da0611fd106aae122a4f39d361df21be52bb55a086198b23dd954ceba615d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 0c | 11,280$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 10,967$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 0c | 9,382$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,978$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 0c | 5,551$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…f56ebacked Yes | 26c | 3,946$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,336$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd0…c466backed No | 74c | 1,330$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…5271backed No | 74c | 1,320$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…9834backed No | 74c | 1,300$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 8c | 978.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 799.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 624.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 26c | 525.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 60c | 422.47$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.93 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 61c | 388.38$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…8b76backed No | 79c | 362.66$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 343.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 341.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 331.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 312.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 309.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 303.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 296.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 26c | 294.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 10c | 289.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 286.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 27c | 273.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 266.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 248.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 21c | 228.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 18c | 221.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 219.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 219.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 13c | 194.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 187.74$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 27c | 187.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 31c | 180.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 178.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 22c | 173.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 169.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 168.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 29c | 162$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 45c | 158.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 15c | 149.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 15c | 145.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 24c | 144.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 139.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 26c | 138.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 134.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 15c | 133.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 18c | 130.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 127.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 32c | 126.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 9c | 124.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…a7f2backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 119.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 43c | 117.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…2bbfbacked Yes | 29c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 52c | 114.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…bf48backed Yes | 27c | 109.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 73c | 107.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…f67fbacked Yes | 10c | 105.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…ab30backed Yes | 11c | 101.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 99.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 11c | 96.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…1022backed Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 50c | 84.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…38a5backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…1724backed Yes | 13c | 79.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 67.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 64.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed Yes | 17c | 59.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 20c | 58.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 55.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 72c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 21c | 53.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 51.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.