TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,180 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcda…bb51backed Yes0c11,280$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.183850%19 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c10,967$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes0c9,382$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes1c7,978$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.823956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes0c5,551$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0656…f56ebacked Yes26c3,946$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes2c1,336$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.971,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd0…c466backed No74c1,330$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc26…5271backed No74c1,320$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb7…9834backed No74c1,300$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes8c978.69$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.453732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c799.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.934,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c624.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes26c525.03$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No60c422.47$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes61c388.38$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.851020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x261c…8b76backed No79c362.66$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.29666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c343.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c341.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No76c331.41$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes11c312.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7752322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes17c309.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.531,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c303.32$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c296.32$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes26c294.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.82638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes10c289.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes16c286.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes27c273.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.164623.9%11 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes20c266.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.661,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c248.4$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes21c228.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.998531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes18c221.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes9c219.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c219.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.617,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes9c210$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef7…2978backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367319.2%14 W · 59 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…0383backed Yes13c194.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No77c187.74$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.791,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes27c187.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes31c180.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1915334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No67c178.07$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0730664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8934319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes22c173.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.835018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No51c169.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c168.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.092,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes29c162$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9811038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No45c158.54$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No78c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes15c149.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8813424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d02…54b8backed Yes15c145.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.392528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…6998backed Yes24c144.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.114219%8 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No46c139.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes26c138.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.461,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes9c134.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes15c133.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes18c130.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5326828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c127.84$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.81,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes32c126.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes9c124.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4647…a7f2backed Yes20c123$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No58c119.05$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5032652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes43c117.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb432…2bbfbacked Yes29c115$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…5d73backed Yes52c114.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594637%17 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes27c111.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed Yes27c109.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No73c107.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.491957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked Yes28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e9…f67fbacked Yes10c105.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…ab30backed Yes11c101.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205322.6%12 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.567521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c99.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes11c96.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f34…1022backed Yes12c95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes50c84.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5126265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f24…38a5backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.32825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc445…1724backed Yes13c79.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No49c67.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.061,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c64.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes25c59.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.081,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ae…7bc6backed Yes17c59.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.394761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed Yes20c58.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.781216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c55.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No72c55.55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.553271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Yes21c53.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes19c53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes23c51.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.285453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.