Movies · resolved market
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455adc20ff297af4ae04af07a624dec8845ef21e810f48da86a5aebc8cba6e6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 36c | 892$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 11c | 881.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 69c | 604.2$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 26c | 570.95$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 64c | 534$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 64c | 358$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 25c | 347.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…fb81backed Yes | 10c | 234.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 24c | 234$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 208.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…1f44backed No | 74c | 203.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 202$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…8650backed No | 71c | 188.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 17c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…9bd3backed Yes | 27c | 156.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edc…274fbacked No | 72c | 138.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 15c | 135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…1bffbacked Yes | 20c | 112.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…5b75backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…40c6backed No | 50c | 51.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…ec8cbacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 35.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 51c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 66c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Priscilla" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.