Movies · resolved market
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf4d31e08d8aa7e45d17003b8cd07f6514663478fa8a04da8cc72b5bfa39f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 9c | 1,749$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 55c | 1,055$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 50c | 1,054$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 897.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 60c | 778$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 19c | 771$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 50c | 719$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 56c | 622$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.68 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 50c | 619$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 45c | 608$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 58c | 591$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 58c | 548$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 42c | 544$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 40c | 498$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked No | 50c | 477$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 50c | 461$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 3c | 442.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 44c | 374$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 42c | 342$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 71c | 332.48$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 45c | 314$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 48c | 256$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 52c | 256$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 50c | 249$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 44c | 248$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…9bd3backed No | 22c | 235.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 40c | 217$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 50c | 213$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 44c | 205$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 56c | 205$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…d809backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 22c | 179.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 9c | 168.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 76c | 157.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…75fabacked Yes | 78c | 154.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…3487backed Yes | 69c | 153.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 45c | 133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 109.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…6a9fbacked Yes | 70c | 85.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 69.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…fb81backed No | 23c | 66.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…bda9backed Yes | 74c | 64.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 24c | 58.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…1bffbacked No | 36c | 52.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…2a09backed Yes | 77c | 52.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 68c | 49.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…19f1backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…92eebacked No | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…1671backed Yes | 79c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…672dbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 73c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
- Will "Priscilla" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.