Movies · resolved market
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c41b6da590651dc1c74a452c9aaaa067dc4d1dcae446fad14e0f2cbc7a0adb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 44c | 664$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…63a7backed Yes | 3c | 452.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 56c | 320$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 56c | 315$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 20c | 221.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 101.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 20c | 89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 50c | 66.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…9fecbacked Yes | 50c | 61.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…4998backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c88…ad6dbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Overboard" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.