Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6739ae1ed8c6660333b670053a7a1f127af5687e099aad5f99fda4ef9c1ebc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,170 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 75c | 2,471$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.57 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…d89dbacked No | 39c | 1,098$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 33c | 838.54$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 55c | 616.36$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.88 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 447.65$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 34c | 423.53$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 303.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 32c | 208.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 62c | 158.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 61c | 139.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 21c | 117.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed No | 31c | 111.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 59c | 101.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 20c | 93.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 90.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed No | 46c | 89.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 86.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 58c | 86.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 23c | 84.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 37c | 84.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…e784backed Yes | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 27c | 71.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 65.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 26c | 61.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 73c | 61.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 72c | 55.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…de3cbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…0591backed No | 33c | 42.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 70c | 40.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 65c | 39.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…be36backed Yes | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 57cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…3108backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $263 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $300 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $420 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $435 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $450 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $473 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $570 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.