Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla reach $435 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b53b17571d150fdbce4cf6a43bc8120a42e44b7d37c86c4808c3dc0a33838be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 55c | 106.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 82.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 44c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 56.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 50c | 25.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…e33ebacked No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla reach $435 in March?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $263 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $300 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $420 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $450 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $473 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $570 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.