Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebab94a596efde560bb4d1b55e274bdb623d377d71f0b7010f6e579f09b1bef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,604$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 41c | 3,014$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.44 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 65c | 1,428$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 3c | 1,359$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 58c | 640.92$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.57 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 29c | 343.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.33 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa438…8605backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 39c | 276.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 262$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…edf2backed Yes | 25c | 236.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…926abacked No | 75c | 236.36$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…be36backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked No | 65c | 198$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 150.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…fb90backed No | 23c | 145$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 25c | 128.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 46c | 112.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 21c | 99.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 77c | 99.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 19c | 95.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 56c | 84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 51c | 83.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 64.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 63c | 63.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…e33ebacked No | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 47c | 47.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 67c | 32.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 52c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $263 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $300 in March?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $390 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in March?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $420 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $435 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $450 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $473 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $503 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $533 in March?No won
- Will Tesla reach $570 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.