Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Laurie Buckhout be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3247250f73b0119dca046b93a427b5c6030fe052d65f5724d6c6e2674af510c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 67c | 1,725$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.35 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 40c | 1,279$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.69 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 73c | 980$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 72c | 903$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 28c | 815$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 27c | 747$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 72c | 630$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 78c | 480$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 22c | 480$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 61c | 400$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 59c | 368$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 41c | 368$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 22c | 357.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 31c | 245.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 78c | 242.15$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 27c | 233$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked No | 28c | 186$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 170.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 16c | 139$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 77c | 130.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 62c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…db35backed Yes | 62c | 122.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 18c | 107.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 73c | 107.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…dff5backed No | 31c | 95.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 37c | 82.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 73.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 64.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 63.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 52c | 58.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 71c | 48.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 35c | 30.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 60c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…10afbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…8416backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…30a5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f7dcbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…53f6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…e496backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…65a5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…0276backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…58c7backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Laurie Buckhout be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?this page
- Will Asa Buck be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?No won
- Will Robert Hanig be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.