Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Asa Buck be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73aebea71be30de4078c8e8d159ae1104f637061bc34e5d488e2c47ce8c6181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 1,956$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.13 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 36c | 1,431$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 11c | 1,078$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 64c | 895$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 13c | 836$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 11c | 634$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 64c | 460$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 11c | 449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 11c | 404$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 11c | 371$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 274.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 13c | 217$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 13c | 149.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 25c | 123$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 99.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 64c | 92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 75c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…4234backed Yes | 52c | 73.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 47c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 63c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Asa Buck be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?this page
- Will Laurie Buckhout be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?Yes won
- Will Robert Hanig be the Republican Nominee for NC-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.