Middle East · resolved market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x613deb2291b9f62a1b6d5a2f18c49f06344206563044d6fc19955b8c7ad476c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,908$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 31c | 1,192$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.26 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 798.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 72c | 582$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 28c | 582$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 17c | 579.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 559.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 72c | 318.14$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 34c | 271.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 44c | 219.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 50c | 209.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 20c | 199.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 183.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 51c | 168.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 76c | 113.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…c68ebacked No | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 63c | 95.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 90.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…36c8backed No | 61c | 81.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…bbf5backed No | 40c | 73.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +321.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 64.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 63.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 77c | 61.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 22c | 60.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 50c | 60.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 51.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 49.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 56c | 41.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 32.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 45c | 26.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 53c | 25.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…1e45backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…5e37backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2c…633abacked Yes | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 72c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?this page
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 24?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.