Middle East · resolved market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf236df166d8cabb906dc970e37bccfb5e1ab800cec750b7a6793c7c68fdd37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,297 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked No | 2c | 2,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 53c | 1,888$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 17c | 1,299$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 47c | 1,141$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 47c | 947$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 47c | 941$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 53c | 618$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.54 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 63c | 602.7$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 53c | 523$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…f89bbacked Yes | 60c | 490.67$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 447$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 56c | 440.39$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 417.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 35c | 387.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…0cb6backed No | 51c | 295.47$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 248.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 226.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 49c | 179.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 151.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…269abacked Yes | 62c | 151.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 48c | 148.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 120.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked No | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 100.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…6128backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 94.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…e1c6backed No | 36c | 83.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 69.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 45c | 66.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 46c | 65.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 61c | 63.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 55c | 60.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…fdf2backed Yes | 72c | 37.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc5…9130backed No | 37c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…d2b4backed Yes | 61c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed Yes | 57c | 31.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…538abacked Yes | 57c | 31.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…cf32backed Yes | 42c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 29.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…2758backed Yes | 63c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?this page
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 24?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.