Middle East · resolved market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc703fe394626096f832c3a269d47a46772e042c26827a66619e7435cfb06116f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 2c | 5,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 1c | 4,800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 1c | 4,750$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 3c | 1,392$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 53c | 1,271$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.29 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 4c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 76c | 1,076$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.81 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 945.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 47c | 810.57$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 45c | 803.58$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.78 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 55c | 719$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +374.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 45c | 719$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.55 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 41c | 714.92$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.49 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 67c | 692$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 57c | 676$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.32 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 67c | 660$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 55c | 655.62$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.29 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed No | 52c | 571.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 571.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 33c | 549$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 33c | 530$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 33c | 515$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.05 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 42c | 401$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…c9f1backed No | 53c | 369.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 55c | 358.54$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 48c | 334.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 67c | 313$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed Yes | 33c | 313$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 43c | 313$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 43c | 310$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…a6ffbacked No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 67c | 242$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked No | 49c | 202.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 51c | 160.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 51c | 132.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…c68ebacked No | 53c | 113.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 45c | 111.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 46c | 105.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 49c | 101.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 52c | 99.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…faabbacked No | 47c | 98.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…8783backed Yes | 48c | 63.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 52c | 61.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 52c | 48.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 56c | 47.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…366fbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…5013backed No | 51c | 35.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 60c | 34.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +279.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…cf32backed Yes | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 58c | 26.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…3b6cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 52c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?this page
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 24?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.