TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,291 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72fa…5e4ebacked No5c1,928$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.38333%1 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-92.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes73c1,510$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.2621525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No26c1,484$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.841936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes75c1,391$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.224940.8%20 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No24c1,354$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.216651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed Yes65c1,290$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes68c821$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed No32c821$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes74c746$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+182.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes74c738$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.881947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5d…5f6abacked No35c675$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed Yes65c639.19$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2711454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No35c615$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.251729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No29c538.83$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.635440.7%22 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes68c448.49$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.034814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked No25c406$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.184542.2%19 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No30c394.85$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.157145.1%32 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41dd…6e71backed No35c374.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7585…7be2backed Yes65c316.85$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb18…57ecbacked No33c301.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes74c296.65$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.31723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No33c267.12$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.579247.8%44 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a2…a6e6backed Yes69c266.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes58c227.84$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3913639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c204.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5c…81c9backed No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No22c199.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6120749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes73c142.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3135652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No19c121.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0832345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf756…d3a9backed No27c118$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90cf…5914backed No26c106$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf431…adacbacked No26c105$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c102.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes58c102.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9319648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x937f…2ca0backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35c…dc38backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7622…3aeabacked No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb776…d112backed No25c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e8…d1abbacked No26c95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed63…e1c6backed No32c94.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8831728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No39c72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…25f1backed No29c69.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No26c69.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3320035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes57c66.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8914036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No39c66.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.791225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x653b…c68ebacked No33c60.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…eb72backed No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…ba17backed Yes74c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27e…cc07backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb2…7f19backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154238.1%16 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c14…2f42backed Yes75c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…8ae2backed Yes73c43.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72751.9%14 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ee…5e87backed No35c43.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…aa33backed Yes77c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1336035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154040%16 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.28929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd54…b332backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.42450%12 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.62050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.613543.7%59 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6ff9backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf0…9180backed Yes74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x763b…5fe4backed No27c39.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes65c39.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6925339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fd…2b15backed Yes74c38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4e…d97ebacked Yes74c38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c37.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No32c35.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-70.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5e…7696backed Yes74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No32c34.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1924759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198d…4be3backed Yes74c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda15…10d8backed Yes71c28.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4086backed Yes77c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…c0a8backed Yes73c25.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982b…85a5backed Yes74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…fb3abacked Yes74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb33…5a8abacked Yes75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab41…4916backed Yes59c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.021040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa675…ad46backed Yes74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bb…6736backed Yes74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes67c20.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8259…a170backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd182…941ebacked Yes69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.22433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x699d…0501backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes74c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf666…d8e7backed Yes74c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3b…4309backed Yes77c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1002…afbabacked Yes77c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…6daabacked Yes74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4d…ea81backed Yes77c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.