Middle East · resolved market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9e32fa58c3bd0aa549ee115731dd8ef9a022e67c41e8179fbcf206e72023ea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,743 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 35c | 481.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 77c | 344.54$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked No | 33c | 276.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 223.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked No | 12c | 166.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 9c | 166.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…b4abbacked No | 10c | 139.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 25c | 60.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 58c | 48.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 23c | 47.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 36.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 69c | 16.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?this page
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 20?Yes won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 24?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.