IPO · resolved market
Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be less than $9.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd84bbcecde1553332958e62f666e9f13eb29fb526014509062b1a4d1f909ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,407 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 76c | 1,512$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.26 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…3f91backed Yes | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 25c | 900$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 65c | 742$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 34c | 656$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 35c | 651$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 21c | 570$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 35c | 531$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 35c | 480$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 66c | 467$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed Yes | 65c | 451$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked Yes | 65c | 449$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 63c | 416$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 35c | 284$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 65c | 282$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 66c | 276$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 34c | 87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be less than $9.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?Yes won
- Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be greater than $12.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.