IPO · resolved market
Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b445eb20e0269e3477b3d23c72bbd32f9a439709a9fa319f910638af6b63c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 65c | 1,359$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 23c | 1,187$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed No | 19c | 1,113$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 23c | 957$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 79c | 944$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 11c | 880$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 21c | 809$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 16c | 765$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 79c | 678$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 13c | 638$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 15c | 614$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 23c | 493$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 23c | 480$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 12c | 476$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed No | 23c | 434$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 77c | 434$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 77c | 406$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 77c | 403$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 77c | 392$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 77c | 360$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 12c | 351$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 24c | 295$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 77c | 295$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 13c | 227$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 77c | 205$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 16c | 191$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 33c | 169$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 23c | 168$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 77c | 106$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked Yes | 76c | 70.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…f6fdbacked Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 55c | 39.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Clear Street Group Inc. not IPO before April 2026?this page
- Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be greater than $12.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be less than $9.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.