TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$335,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$252,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa847…88a5backed No7c26,265$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.68234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-87%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked No0c18,332$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed No4c18,099$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.388341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c16,622$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-90.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…57cebacked No0c14,991$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1859…fc9cbacked No1c7,862$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.53137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c7,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c24…37d8backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed No33c4,104$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c3,855$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.876883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b0…6452backed Yes2c3,650$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick4cpaid+2,216.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes21c3,565$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.7911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xd3b7…b46fbacked No1c3,428$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed No9c3,367$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,331$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.421,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a8…722fbacked Yes2c3,050$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+1,861.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked No0c2,950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed No4c2,435$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.26559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No0c2,360$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No0c2,358$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95350%0 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2599…68acbacked No6c2,298$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c1,941$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.221664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,872$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.82344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a8…3592backed No6c1,694$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+411.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf96a…afaebacked Yes2c1,600$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5661100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,605.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No9c1,554$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…e24fbacked No1c1,305$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…9c74backed No6c1,258$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.73200%0 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,246$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.6916616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No2c1,204$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.441258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…e7cabacked No9c1,120$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f4…9073backed Yes15c1,050$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.15560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick19cpaid+221.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98017921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Yes1c1,000$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9901100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed No9c983$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+152.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No9c951$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No2c898.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.373710.8%4 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fe…074cbacked No2c892.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes13c889.48$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.829613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No6c883.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.695230.8%16 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed No9c877$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c868.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8424110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed No9c868$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+144.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd26…4422backed No9c839.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.521442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+100.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No8c741.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.916311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed No9c733$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+215.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c730.61$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1456314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No4c689.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38355.7%2 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No9c689$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.412416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No9c654$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+253.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c625$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.552117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No6c599.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed No9c597$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No9c586$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+173.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d99…8445backed No30c557.54$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+1,618.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No9c494$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No9c468$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1270%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed No9c465$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No9c460$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c451.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.681425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes26c450$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.72777.8%21 W · 6 L+13.2wins+0.49per pick29cpaid+167.8%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No9c418$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No25c401$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.413030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8885…5792backed Yes15c400$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.334100%4 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+443.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No9c392$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked No9c391$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No9c367.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.059418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed No9c355$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc934…5551backed Yes19c325$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+425%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc18…cb94backed No9c317$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed No9c316$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked No9c313$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.17922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No9c312$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No22c299.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No9c289.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.091323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+246.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed No9c274$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+124.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+261.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No27c219.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8699017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c213.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No9c201.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed No9c179$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No9c167$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No9c159$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No23c157$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+149.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No9c156$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No9c147$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked No9c140$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c111.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.661,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.72433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed No23c96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No10c95.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed Yes77c93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No29c78.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.954450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes77c73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…8f24backed No16c69.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes79c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed Yes77c49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed Yes77c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.