Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $200 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b29756f9f4cb8ce45f7e7ca0575c6922b168d8aedab8a646dc1d364c81802f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked No | 19c | 13,565$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 54c | 12,176$6,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,544.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 47c | 11,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,780 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 51c | 10,524$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.95 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 66c | 6,904$4,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,571.03 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 51c | 6,625$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.09 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 63c | 6,604$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.13 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 53c | 6,098$3,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.99 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 1c | 4,086$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 59c | 2,732$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…cec9backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +8.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 67c | 1,852$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…4eb6backed No | 42c | 1,175$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 27c | 850$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed No | 28c | 762.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 61c | 436.46$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…c11dbacked No | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…ae3ebacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 51c | 266$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf623…bb2cbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 45c | 184.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…4444backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…affdbacked No | 53c | 154.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…3d8dbacked No | 65c | 143.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…bb53backed No | 53c | 123.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 55c | 104.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…659abacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…143cbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…91a2backed No | 64c | 56.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…0d66backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…26afbacked No | 53c | 46.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…1b21backed Yes | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…bec6backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…774cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…2fb2backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 57c | 37.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…a0bdbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…bb98backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…bd19backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…234abacked Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 64c | 22.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…6cd0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…92a5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $200 in October?this page
- Will Solana dip to $120 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $190 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $195 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.