Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $120 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8afc648ba0f35fa12b2d320b9309b0af57a4903630d264413ce6d8f5e4d166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $517,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $591,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 7c | 122,222$8,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,224.25 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 18,287$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.56 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 17,529$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…6f07backed Yes | 3c | 14,677$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,498$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,336$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 1c | 6,599$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 15cpaid | +2,527.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…80f7backed Yes | 0c | 6,398$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…089ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,518$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,499$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…95ffbacked Yes | 1c | 4,405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…de60backed Yes | 4c | 4,314$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,723$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.32 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 6c | 2,112$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5d…be63backed Yes | 2c | 1,662$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,642$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,606$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…8e2bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,489$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,451$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 3c | 1,433$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…8d33backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,273$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…c6cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,088$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…edd6backed Yes | 5c | 819.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 667.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 6c | 595.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…a4d7backed Yes | 8c | 327.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…c270backed Yes | 6c | 324.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…7ba8backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $120 in October?this page
- Will Solana dip to $150 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $190 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $195 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $200 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.