TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$262,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd588…cec0backed Yes13c14,706$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.498521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes20c14,165$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.714238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bdc…b42cbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes2c7,865$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c7,120$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.942333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes44c5,233$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5531…c763backed No80c5,076$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No39c4,958$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.7920551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes16c4,901$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.052425%6 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,198$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.157663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No78c3,630$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf77b…eb5cbacked No74c3,544$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.092030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes16c3,509$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.196836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1aafbacked Yes8c2,914$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.591020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c2,868$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.735712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae57…45e2backed Yes22c2,853$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.02425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes13c2,841$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.77519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c31…d94cbacked Yes5c2,836$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c9…3477backed Yes6c2,836$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…a206backed Yes17c2,758$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.54327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e8…a5cbbacked Yes13c2,714$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.48110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes9c2,700$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2545712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes27c2,275$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b36…ba79backed No78c2,250$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac7…e0efbacked No80c2,114$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.831338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Yes9c2,088$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04015941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes10c2,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.513023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes12c2,000$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.581225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No79c1,738$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.23666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x443f…596fbacked Yes61c1,600$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes5c1,465$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No80c1,404$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.862832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fc…1345backed Yes18c1,300$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked No41c1,289$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed Yes11c1,160$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf944…c249backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+507.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60785.7%6 W · 1 L+5.1wins+0.73per pick12cpaid+733.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No79c865.78$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.783638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1821…df61backed Yes38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd3…d13bbacked Yes35c741.53$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No52c733.04$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.217234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed No65c686.53$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eec…a523backed Yes37c671.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed No76c654.01$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…ee81backed Yes31c648.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed No74c629.65$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.531154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…9133backed Yes20c599.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-81.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes18c594.95$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3711124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No71c588.78$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.783060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No77c573.69$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.878744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c77…f1d6backed Yes18c567.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes15c549$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.823732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed Yes6c529.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24f9…ed77backed Yes15c500$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11515539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed No7c499.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.993324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae3…2c9dbacked No66c468.12$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.421275%9 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+2,349.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes41c463.04$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes16c437.16$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.88528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa85f…ac2bbacked Yes47c425$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.752657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42df…19e0backed No74c408.79$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No75c385.73$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.874057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes16c385.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4215637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…9da6backed No70c381.51$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.854161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf26a…e5b1backed Yes6c370.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c367.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.351190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b7…21fbbacked No60c334.48$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31e…7a2dbacked Yes17c322.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes24c320$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.83548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…3fbebacked Yes29c312.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c285.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.633495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked No73c281.86$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.61040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes8c281.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes18c277.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…9d84backed Yes8c270$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed Yes26c264$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.122050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed No50c260$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dc…3f6abacked No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe79…e6dcbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ced…1f21backed Yes26c236.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.613729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes10c235.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.449914.1%14 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Yes22c225.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…8b54backed No71c215.91$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.69785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fd…83b5backed No76c212$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.881546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x968e…609abacked Yes11c205.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b84…5bdcbacked No73c204.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4610462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84da…0a03backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444050%20 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf548…a0ffbacked No68c198.93$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c191.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6246320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x50ec…aa43backed Yes18c188.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+178.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.