Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde637b41849ac2ba4a3a627c2aeb58e0cbe509087053240bade758b4723aac36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 13c | 14,706$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.49 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Yes | 20c | 14,165$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.71 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…b42cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 2c | 7,865$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 7,120$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.94 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 44c | 5,233$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.97 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed No | 80c | 5,076$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 39c | 4,958$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030.79 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 16c | 4,901$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,198$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 78c | 3,630$2,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…eb5cbacked No | 74c | 3,544$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,509$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.19 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1aafbacked Yes | 8c | 2,914$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 2,868$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae57…45e2backed Yes | 22c | 2,853$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 2,841$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.77 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…d94cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,836$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…3477backed Yes | 6c | 2,836$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 17c | 2,758$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…a5cbbacked Yes | 13c | 2,714$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 9c | 2,700$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,275$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…ba79backed No | 78c | 2,250$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…e0efbacked No | 80c | 2,114$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Yes | 9c | 2,088$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 79c | 1,738$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…596fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,600$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 5c | 1,465$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 80c | 1,404$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…1345backed Yes | 18c | 1,300$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked No | 41c | 1,289$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Yes | 11c | 1,160$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.73per pick | 12cpaid | +733.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 79c | 865.78$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…d13bbacked Yes | 35c | 741.53$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 52c | 733.04$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.21 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed No | 65c | 686.53$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…a523backed Yes | 37c | 671.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 76c | 654.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 31c | 648.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed No | 74c | 629.65$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…9133backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 18c | 594.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 71c | 588.78$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 77c | 573.69$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed Yes | 18c | 567.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 15c | 549$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed Yes | 6c | 529.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…ed77backed Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…2c9dbacked No | 66c | 468.12$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +2,349.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 41c | 463.04$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 16c | 437.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked Yes | 47c | 425$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…19e0backed No | 74c | 408.79$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 75c | 385.73$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 16c | 385.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed No | 70c | 381.51$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…e5b1backed Yes | 6c | 370.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 367.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked No | 60c | 334.48$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31e…7a2dbacked Yes | 17c | 322.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 24c | 320$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…3fbebacked Yes | 29c | 312.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 285.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 73c | 281.86$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes | 8c | 281.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 18c | 277.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…9d84backed Yes | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 26c | 264$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed No | 50c | 260$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe79…e6dcbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1f21backed Yes | 26c | 236.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 235.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Yes | 22c | 225.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…8b54backed No | 71c | 215.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…83b5backed No | 76c | 212$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…609abacked Yes | 11c | 205.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…5bdcbacked No | 73c | 204.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…a0ffbacked No | 68c | 198.93$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 191.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…aa43backed Yes | 18c | 188.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.