Token Launches · resolved market
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd320009bb0e7242162c2ae299bd41bc69f28f1f63a532e9d3cf521f9e37f03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 9c | 14,625$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.18 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,740$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 67c | 8,272$5,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,546.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…46c0backed Yes | 70c | 7,136$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 65c | 5,814$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Yes | 8c | 4,842$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.46 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,697$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.19 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 71c | 3,491$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 7c | 3,427$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.17 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 34c | 3,401$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.15 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…633fbacked No | 40c | 3,332$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,160$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…b42cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,118$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…0082backed No | 32c | 2,894$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…596fbacked Yes | 62c | 2,775$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,772$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.25 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…1f44backed No | 30c | 2,714$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…2d84backed No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed No | 31c | 2,360$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed Yes | 10c | 2,302$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 26c | 2,086$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.49 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,074$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 57c | 1,740$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.88 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,662$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed Yes | 60c | 1,636$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.93 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 8c | 1,526$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 45c | 1,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae57…45e2backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 50c | 1,406$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…b5b6backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 14c | 1,326$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.42 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…ee81backed Yes | 38c | 1,291$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…720ebacked No | 14c | 1,289$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +270.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 32c | 1,253$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.12 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed Yes | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 3c | 1,208$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 54c | 1,162$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…3ac0backed Yes | 7c | 1,138$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…d94cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,127$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…19e0backed No | 39c | 1,113$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 38c | 1,112$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.77 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…a2d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…f2b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,085$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 50c | 1,020$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.88 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…34fcbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…9f8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…3477backed Yes | 3c | 915$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…a5cbbacked Yes | 3c | 859.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 37c | 808.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5d…2da5backed Yes | 12c | 804.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 800.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes | 19c | 800$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 782.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 763.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7ee5backed No | 38c | 750$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 48c | 732.6$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…609abacked Yes | 5c | 701.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 700$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 23c | 699.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 5c | 697.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked No | 41c | 675.95$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…ce3ebacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Yes | 11c | 611.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…eb7cbacked No | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes | 65c | 596.75$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 585$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes | 52c | 562.81$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…20aebacked Yes | 7c | 553.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…5aecbacked Yes | 33c | 553$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…f44ebacked No | 67c | 549.09$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 522.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 49c | 515.93$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1aafbacked Yes | 7c | 511.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…08abbacked Yes | 5c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…a0ffbacked No | 79c | 507.88$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…5f71backed Yes | 59c | 505.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268a…e4a0backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed No | 40c | 496.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…df61backed Yes | 10c | 487.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…1345backed Yes | 17c | 485$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 79c | 460$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…0200backed Yes | 11c | 454.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…3fbebacked No | 55c | 453.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked No | 79c | 448.37$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed No | 18c | 442.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?this page
- Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.