Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75f7422d6d11b3f63c973386f54fd4a8e208e7eb7cc3963f758d53128fe31a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000c…bcf3backed Yes | 21c | 6,144$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.74 | 299 | 16.7%50 W · 249 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 80c | 5,964$4,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 19c | 5,763$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.04 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed Yes | 13c | 1,641$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93df…7306backed No | 77c | 1,124$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 20c | 1,043$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.32 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 19c | 894.62$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…8104backed Yes | 16c | 580$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 530$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 14c | 526.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 19c | 520.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 16c | 500.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 18c | 481.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 451.06$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 23c | 449.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 12c | 412.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…ee7bbacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 355$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 80c | 325$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 79c | 270$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 14c | 267.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 17c | 252.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 21c | 249.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 75c | 246.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 16c | 245.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 13c | 231$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 14c | 223.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…030dbacked Yes | 23c | 221.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…5841backed Yes | 17c | 200.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…9537backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 43.3%104 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 14c | 173.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…ba12backed Yes | 16c | 173.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +238.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 162.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…9448backed Yes | 25c | 158.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 21c | 157.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 141.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 12c | 132.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Yes | 11c | 125.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 123.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d2…0b25backed No | 79c | 117.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 127 | 9.4%12 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…498ebacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 104.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…a970backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 20c | 97.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 16c | 82.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 14c | 76.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda05…9e0cbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…2d7ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…e698backed Yes | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 80c | 40.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3987backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6b…7ad7backed No | 80c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…1d65backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…f4dcbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 64 | 76.6%49 W · 15 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked No | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 224 | 45.5%102 W · 122 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…a833backed No | 80c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Spain win the World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.