TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$723,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,923 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee8…6e70backed Yes4c151,449$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c0…00ffbacked Yes20c76,638$15,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,327.83250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e0…fb31backed No80c28,353$22,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,670.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd3…bf4dbacked No80c28,210$22,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4225…3d5fbacked Yes24c26,513$6,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,240.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb30…5057backed No80c20,075$16,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925d…e1e9backed No68c19,199$13,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d6…2815backed No39c15,255$6,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,245.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf403…5b97backed Yes60c10,947$6,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,568.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes26c9,806$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.724520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c9,567$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.61573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c8,136$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.412061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08f8…c2f4backed No32c6,908$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.752638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a2…477cbacked Yes1c5,581$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.991435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e6d7backed Yes49c5,550$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.0150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes1c5,377$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x798b…cdd1backed Yes22c5,091$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes3c4,977$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.89137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick31cpaid-89.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No79c4,090$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.911080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61f…7bc6backed Yes55c3,991$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No41c3,812$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.014632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…459dbacked Yes30c3,522$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-61%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f42…ffadbacked Yes3c3,280$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7472…645bbacked No48c3,272$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.732360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No31c3,146$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.472360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f62…3185backed Yes7c3,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Yes0c2,997$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No66c2,900$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.997759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x586e…87e6backed Yes76c2,663$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No71c2,605$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.955320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c2,595$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.262333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes13c2,501$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3220551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c2,235$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.873283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x987a…a94abacked Yes9c2,206$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.98520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c2,142$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.121424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf650…bff4backed Yes17c2,105$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98d…9df5backed Yes1c2,084$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Yes39c2,033$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde08…22a6backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes17c1,726$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef10…97edbacked Yes5c1,674$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes20c1,558$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.821625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bec…b445backed Yes5c1,505$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No33c1,497$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.614141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes5c1,437$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.962377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes53c1,416$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.577021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0de7…183cbacked Yes70c1,400$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a1…c482backed Yes17c1,398$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.1714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf7…62b0backed Yes66c1,356$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1f…d9c3backed No59c1,305$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2412…f534backed Yes58c1,299$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf626…f9f0backed Yes16c1,247$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.41156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397b…d4bdbacked Yes72c1,246$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.71010%1 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-72.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa0a5…4a73backed Yes63c1,153$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6e…2be1backed Yes26c1,052$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,039$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.617663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed No76c1,005$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.981625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2954…1204backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No27c985.97$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.445330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x690e…6b4fbacked Yes8c976.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c965.84$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5111145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c409backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…25e8backed Yes32c848.68$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes36c848.17$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.48407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44b…c28abacked Yes17c822.22$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.63128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes16c800$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No50c759.98$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.338344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes26c758.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a97…1f4bbacked Yes18c754.6$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.321216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed Yes15c750$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.58421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc547…61cebacked No37c726.76$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff99…f5e5backed Yes16c717.94$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed No66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2383237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed No32c699.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4761963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes15c677.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.833330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+168.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32df…7122backed No31c675.58$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No48c655.11$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.1315362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xfea5…e9afbacked No51c646.27$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f66…a5a7backed No62c643.26$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.271060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf650…6bf8backed No79c633.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.34560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aec…28c1backed Yes24c625.62$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.552532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No73c625.09$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.833020%6 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1149920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a0…1beabacked Yes63c600$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca01…9df3backed Yes77c599.99$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1902…0a28backed Yes67c586.25$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes20c528$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.823732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No23c526.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.5512840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c524.53$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4625422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed No80c509.89$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.471968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0886…1dc5backed Yes15c504.17$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1748…5e9ebacked Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e84…6346backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No38c479.42$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.2414548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc68e…e704backed Yes62c466.88$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.951040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4d…27fbbacked No43c463.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+79.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.