TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x397b…d4bd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.87
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,315Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$548.73
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.86
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$15.71
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$112.67
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+110%+$155.65
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+128.4%+$389.76
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.81
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$60.63
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.59
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$30.86
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$195.39
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.38
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$59.52
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.46
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+119.7%+$89.9
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+165.4%+$67.67
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+34%+$15.78
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$65.14
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.95
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.76
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-72.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.56
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.65
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$536.25
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.32
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.14
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$395.53
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$893Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$892.7
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100.61
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$260.39
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+174.6%+$61.29
All 10 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$13.74
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+195.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+195.6%+$370
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$27.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.