TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,702 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf98d…9df5backed Yes0c8,335$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec2…234fbacked Yes41c7,266$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b1f…d9c3backed No80c6,236$4,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.72887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abc…a604backed Yes35c5,929$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff99…f5e5backed Yes2c5,271$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c5,195$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.782061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545c…3960backed Yes1c4,548$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes1c3,931$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1357…95f3backed No66c3,532$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.451136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes35c3,491$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.224520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e6d7backed Yes21c3,424$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.2550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fdc…1a11backed Yes18c3,316$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked No52c3,274$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.625623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…5d01backed No66c3,085$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a1…c482backed Yes8c2,840$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca43…a229backed Yes38c2,373$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes29c2,318$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.61625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes22c2,247$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.682425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…f9f0backed Yes4c2,188$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.16156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes1c2,061$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212010%2 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9082…4e81backed No69c2,051$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5801861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+83.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes7c1,822$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.547021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5d1…c7c4backed Yes2c1,756$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes31c1,700$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked Yes11c1,500$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1679222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc177…9a03backed Yes19c1,500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed Yes33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f6…17debacked No69c1,440$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbc…7784backed No58c1,391$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed No70c1,350$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.991369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc299…516bbacked Yes4c1,267$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked No71c1,202$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.76100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e6e…98d2backed No67c1,131$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed No50c1,100$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94eb…809dbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked No70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de7…183cbacked Yes22c954.27$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa69b…d844backed No48c935$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c919.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.087663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4318…0d1cbacked Yes30c859.48$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5890%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ed…a7c7backed No46c845.12$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.11770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+62.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb3ee…0991backed Yes23c763.96$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.03714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf6…ac7ebacked Yes3c697.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed No67c650$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2131625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db7…d20ebacked No64c600$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2194161%25 W · 16 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ba…e5acbacked Yes3c564.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5dc…7cf2backed No49c550$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7127…0fe2backed Yes32c523.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes50c500$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked No47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2653441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cae…dfd3backed Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d34…47c8backed No66c499.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114d…661fbacked No66c450$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda9e…42e0backed Yes32c440$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c410.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.233495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes24c392.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9418144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b16…03a6backed No68c366.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c335.49$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6233329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes49c305.08$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4914548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c300$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.516740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08f8…c2f4backed No78c281.68$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.972638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x650b…683fbacked Yes24c276.17$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6660%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7781…ea23backed Yes4c253.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.392626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…6d42backed Yes59c237.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7947…3efcbacked Yes34c220$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x207b…b986backed No70c208.46$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.831250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+60.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc441…a58abacked Yes49c204.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4415539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe934…33cdbacked Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050f…0f26backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.913754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8dd…2813backed No80c199.87$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa22a…cb02backed No69c198.71$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aec…28c1backed Yes6c197.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c185.78$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2519336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7859…2bfabacked No50c173.44$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ee…e1acbacked No65c164.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x443a…cdf1backed No79c161.96$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes23c160$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.42944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e7a…407abacked No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c152.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.272442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8123841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x32df…7122backed No77c149$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.271258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes25c134$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.897147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2c…aababacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a82…54cdbacked Yes11c122.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02d9…a9c1backed Yes34c122.68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No75c120.82$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9110763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed No49c120.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.94580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes44c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90e…7e26backed Yes50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No79c111$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.