Token Launches · resolved market
Paradex FDV above $3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc070b151788030ecfce8e5633059925d7267313a450397d1f8da34a01b944dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,300 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3abc…a604backed Yes | 5c | 11,734$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e6d7backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,629$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,492$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 644.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed Yes | 5c | 448.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 443.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 416.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 4c | 397.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 368.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 295$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paradex FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
- Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $10B one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes won
- Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?No won
- Paradex FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.