TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Mavericks, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,877,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,021,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,877,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 612 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea34…0a92backed Mavericks22c404,347$90,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,628.976654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Lakers77c336,529$259,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,118.598333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Mavericks19c320,334$61,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,013.0715443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Mavericks23c257,578$58,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,321.111,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks24c82,159$19,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,574.654,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Mavericks18c65,208$11,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,905.151,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lakers77c50,923$39,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,625.321,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers77c50,000$38,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,50051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Mavericks18c49,999$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.8972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers77c46,594$35,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,650.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Mavericks19c45,494$8,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,698.7396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Mavericks17c43,965$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,40025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Mavericks19c40,808$7,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,753.4914052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Lakers77c39,600$30,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,097.9418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Lakers77c30,000$23,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,90011558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Mavericks19c20,571$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.7346928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks21c19,755$4,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.063,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Mavericks16c19,102$3,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.514025%35 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Mavericks21c19,048$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Mavericks22c18,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,96039349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks20c17,500$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lakers77c15,263$11,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.32,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks20c14,099$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.0492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers71c11,168$7,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks14c11,014$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.931,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mavericks19c10,984$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.8966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Lakers74c10,938$8,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.7622542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Mavericks20c10,007$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.3474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lakers78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Mavericks10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Mavericks17c10,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks18c9,910$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Lakers80c9,283$7,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.2316943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Lakers72c9,072$6,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.7644337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mavericks17c8,850$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.541,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3444…46a1backed Lakers62c8,814$5,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Mavericks29c8,727$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mavericks16c8,703$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.8985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Mavericks18c8,176$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.6747751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Mavericks21c8,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6805850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bda…4282backed Lakers75c7,958$5,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.4515950.3%80 W · 79 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Mavericks19c7,617$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.712254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks21c7,026$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4541,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Mavericks12c7,000$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.661,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Mavericks14c6,580$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9452924.1%7 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Lakers77c6,494$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.518247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks17c6,384$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.083,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Mavericks12c6,364$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.1127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks20c5,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Mavericks18c5,208$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.3784150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Mavericks20c5,118$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Mavericks20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Mavericks19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9945348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Mavericks19c4,984$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.6827840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Mavericks18c4,983$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8976256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lakers78c4,962$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.671,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Lakers78c4,924$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.3318764.7%121 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Mavericks17c4,714$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.3410144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d53…c882backed Mavericks19c4,554$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.222157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Mavericks9c4,500$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.8482442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lakers78c4,472$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.0681529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Lakers80c4,423$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.5315461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks18c4,399$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Lakers80c4,159$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.715657.1%32 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Lakers77c4,089$3,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.4647856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Mavericks15c4,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Lakers77c3,983$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.8816749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks19c3,918$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.913,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Mavericks18c3,900$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9435651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Mavericks12c3,794$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47024038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Mavericks28c3,750$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9943051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Mavericks16c3,733$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7519388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Lakers78c3,613$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.9911649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Lakers73c3,438$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.111540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Mavericks20c3,395$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.5814356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Mavericks30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Mavericks18c3,333$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9416730.5%51 W · 116 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Lakers79c3,208$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.3844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe69b…bc17backed Lakers80c3,124$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+177.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Lakers78c3,076$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.3395049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks13c2,935$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.473,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Mavericks24c2,923$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.561851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3a…1273backed Mavericks11c2,850$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Lakers71c2,726$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.5962546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Mavericks20c2,721$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.14617.4%8 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lakers76c2,676$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfce…b388backed Mavericks20c2,620$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5242951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Mavericks18c2,600$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3640035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Lakers60c2,465$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.965541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Mavericks27c2,452$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66270147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Mavericks17c2,451$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.7558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked Lakers76c2,433$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.999943.4%43 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mavericks13c2,427$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32127041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Mavericks21c2,400$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50414358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers80c2,386$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Mavericks24c2,378$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.711625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Mavericks1c2,227$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.274573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Mavericks20c2,200$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf28…72aabacked Mavericks19c2,187$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5813318.8%25 W · 108 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.