NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae2bd193a0c465628824a654a98e885dd99fdbdc8ede883783c036ff3d5f6eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 4,444$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.45 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…1552backed Over | 51c | 2,529$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 51c | 2,387$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.41 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 50c | 2,090$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.44 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5089backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,385$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 52c | 1,345$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.78 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 52c | 960.1$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.85 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 344.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Under | 47c | 148.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 49c | 99.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Over | 52c | 95.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 29.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5this page
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.