NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325aed115bd89ff0a3b2e261a62683275c027507ba54843f366e6d835cbc41d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $401,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $408,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a1…e03abacked Lakers | 53c | 330,147$175,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155,147.04 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Mavericks | 47c | 170,000$79,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,900 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Mavericks | 47c | 62,853$29,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,540.87 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks | 47c | 42,141$19,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,803.75 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 50c | 28,764$14,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,382 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers | 51c | 22,555$11,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,996.09 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 47c | 20,987$9,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,863.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Lakers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Mavericks | 48c | 17,311$8,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,269.19 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 47c | 12,500$5,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,875 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 47c | 12,412$5,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,827.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Lakers | 52c | 10,933$5,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,246.89 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Mavericks | 48c | 7,526$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,612.25 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks | 47c | 5,552$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.28 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 47c | 4,990$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.26 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 48c | 1,239$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 896$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks | 49c | 748.81$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.83 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 48c | 613$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mavericks | 49c | 590.2$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216a…9380backed Lakers | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 47c | 550.01$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.46 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Mavericks | 50c | 515$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.65 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 488$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Lakers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 11c | 368.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Lakers | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Mavericks | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Lakers | 52c | 193.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Lakers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Lakers | 52c | 154.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Lakers | 66c | 152.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Mavericks | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mavericks | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Mavericks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Lakers | 54c | 97.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 48c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Lakers | 51c | 69.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mavericks | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…6d35backed Lakers | 52c | 53.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Mavericks | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Lakers | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.