NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912347d8f10cd5bffb8ae34eb844b0534c6c751651b06bc7262f770f29bc31ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd041…7b26backed Under | 51c | 9,020$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 7,227$3,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.44 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 5,738$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.42 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 3,553$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.77 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 3,299$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 50c | 3,181$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.5 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 2,571$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 51c | 1,561$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.9 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 1,530$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.79 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,483$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.98 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 799.37$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 440$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 294$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Under | 23c | 256.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 152$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 138.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 47c | 129.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 52c | 107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Under | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f9…15eebacked Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5this page
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.