NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb143648cbc0e5c18621eaea3bc195d4c21f1240f0cbdca4196227b0d8cc835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 9,228$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 47c | 5,500$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,915 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,508$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 48c | 3,123$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.08 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 58c | 1,293$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.86 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 533$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Under | 55c | 450.45$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 349.77$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…87fcbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 279.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 265.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 46c | 144.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 39c | 144.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 61c | 144.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Under | 73c | 130$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…fa14backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Under | 54c | 74.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Under | 59c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5this page
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.