NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff852677eff21523d5a2ddbf09330ed0affea5a3f5ff1339f6ad09891837363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Mavericks | 55c | 9,329$5,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Lakers | 49c | 6,092$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.69 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 50c | 4,485$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Mavericks | 38c | 2,035$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.97 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,648$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.82 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 45c | 724.93$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Lakers | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…d613backed Lakers | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 51c | 362.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks | 25c | 266.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Lakers | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Lakers | 49c | 182.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Lakers | 71c | 140.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Mavericks | 69c | 114.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Mavericks | 35c | 105.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Mavericks | 41c | 100.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Lakers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Lakers | 59c | 98.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…6d35backed Lakers | 68c | 95.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Lakers | 63c | 94.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 34c | 60.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Lakers | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mavericks | 22c | 49.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Lakers | 80c | 38.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Lakers | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…9848backed Lakers | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…375abacked Mavericks | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…fd58backed Lakers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Lakers | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Lakers | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Lakers | 58c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. LakersLakers won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.