NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bills
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb68c5e1dd36093e8c6a84cd74cc594a554c14de105a864e52e15b30c9070d34a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Chiefs, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,334,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,582,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,334,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 804 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e25…d49ebacked Chiefs | 56c | 1,789,959$1,002,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002,377 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Bills | 44c | 720,595$317,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403,533.18 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Bills | 44c | 579,650$255,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324,604 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbf…53bebacked Chiefs | 56c | 535,373$299,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299,809.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…1556backed Chiefs | 29c | 415,000$121,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,762.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Bills | 44c | 391,802$172,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219,409.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Bills | 44c | 315,000$139,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175,149.99 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Bills | 71c | 181,359$128,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,121.2 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Bills | 44c | 150,000$66,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,000 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Bills | 44c | 146,453$64,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,013.68 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bills | 53c | 129,033$68,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,847.84 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bills | 53c | 107,562$57,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,064.68 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Bills | 68c | 106,412$72,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,231.65 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…ca97backed Bills | 58c | 101,028$59,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,997.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Chiefs | 56c | 86,905$48,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,330.92 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Bills | 44c | 78,471$34,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,943.61 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bills | 44c | 75,319$33,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,980.82 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Bills | 63c | 74,322$46,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,709.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bills | 59c | 59,749$35,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,426.1 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bills | 61c | 57,829$35,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,584.85 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Chiefs | 46c | 56,180$25,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,903.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bills | 44c | 50,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,000 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Chiefs | 55c | 50,000$27,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,499.81 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Chiefs | 45c | 49,225$22,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,134.91 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Chiefs | 45c | 45,000$20,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,250 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Chiefs | 28c | 41,085$11,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,700 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Bills | 44c | 41,000$18,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,960 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Chiefs | 38c | 39,196$14,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,850.29 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bills | 44c | 35,057$15,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,607.88 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Bills | 45c | 33,867$15,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,707.62 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Chiefs | 15c | 33,655$5,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,181.82 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e81…a854backed Bills | 80c | 33,059$26,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,637.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Chiefs | 67c | 32,050$21,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,474.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Bills | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Bills | 45c | 28,909$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,908.6 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Bills | 44c | 25,883$11,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,368.97 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Bills | 44c | 23,581$10,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,205.57 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bills | 73c | 22,804$16,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,172.46 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Bills | 44c | 21,392$9,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,979.49 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bills | 64c | 20,727$13,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,552.26 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Chiefs | 26c | 20,548$5,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,361.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Chiefs | 33c | 17,997$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Chiefs | 55c | 17,134$9,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,372.38 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills | 47c | 16,579$7,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,814.9 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Bills | 45c | 15,528$6,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,540.53 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Bills | 45c | 13,333$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,333.33 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Bills | 40c | 12,492$5,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,455.31 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 78c | 12,294$9,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.21 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chiefs | 34c | 11,551$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.79 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Chiefs | 55c | 10,891$5,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,993.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bills | 44c | 10,779$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,030.11 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…4541backed Chiefs | 28c | 10,590$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Chiefs | 32c | 10,002$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.89 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Chiefs | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,599.99 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Chiefs | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,499.98 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bills | 44c | 9,999$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,599.44 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…2354backed Chiefs | 55c | 9,409$5,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,174.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Chiefs | 55c | 9,067$4,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.98 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Bills | 44c | 9,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bills | 67c | 8,638$5,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.99 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…e0e1backed Bills | 59c | 8,016$4,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Bills | 75c | 7,719$5,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.41 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Chiefs | 53c | 7,679$4,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,102.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Chiefs | 56c | 7,500$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Chiefs | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,125 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Chiefs | 56c | 7,392$4,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,135.76 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 7,120$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Bills | 70c | 7,014$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.38 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Bills | 66c | 7,000$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.97 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Bills | 44c | 6,998$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,904.67 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Chiefs | 54c | 6,721$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…f5f6backed Chiefs | 32c | 6,250$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Bills | 79c | 6,183$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.18 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bills | 71c | 5,872$4,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.85 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…6815backed Bills | 76c | 5,451$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Chiefs | 23c | 5,329$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.37 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…1accbacked Chiefs | 48c | 5,238$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Bills | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bills | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 44c | 4,759$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683.64 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Bills | 52c | 4,708$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.37 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Chiefs | 1c | 4,563$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 98 | 0%0 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5592backed Bills | 47c | 4,300$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Chiefs | 14c | 4,062$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Chiefs | 54c | 4,046$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Bills | 74c | 4,045$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.92 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…252ebacked Bills | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Bills | 44c | 3,805$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.64 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Chiefs | 1c | 3,608$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +296.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Bills | 71c | 3,516$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Chiefs | 47c | 3,500$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Bills | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chiefs | 54c | 3,480$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.18 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Chiefs | 54c | 3,436$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.63 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…0848backed Bills | 50c | 3,353$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Bills | 51c | 3,348$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.52 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Bills | 40c | 3,346$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.14 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Chiefs | 21c | 3,220$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Billsthis page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.