NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7362075bf45c9d754daa939bfb3a510daeefd08f05356f60cc7ba6a6bc33e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $895,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $895,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $895,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 44c | 866,311$379,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486,415.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 56c | 314,164$176,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,331.75 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 56c | 75,000$42,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,000 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 65,782$37,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,057.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 56c | 62,821$35,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,179.51 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 56c | 62,140$34,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,798.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 56c | 53,751$30,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,114.41 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 57c | 50,200$28,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,614 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 56c | 30,000$16,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,800 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Over | 56c | 25,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 56c | 24,763$13,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,990.75 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Over | 56c | 24,043$13,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,464.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 44c | 22,000$9,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,319.99 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,200 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Over | 56c | 16,000$8,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,960 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Over | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 56c | 9,150$5,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,124 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a3…e3a5backed Over | 56c | 8,000$4,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 57c | 4,523$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.08 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 56c | 3,750$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 56c | 3,261$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.59 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 56c | 2,527$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.12 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…b822backed Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 1,354$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.49 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 56c | 1,159$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.14 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 1,115$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.33 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 56c | 999.26$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.15 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…96b5backed Over | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…da69backed Under | 43c | 865$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 56c | 547.79$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.76 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…15f1backed Under | 43c | 530$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ce…57b9backed Over | 57c | 495$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 58c | 477.59$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 56c | 437$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 58c | 379.31$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 57c | 338.9$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Over | 58c | 243.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Under | 43c | 195$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 57c | 163$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Over | 57c | 134$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 52c | 91.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Over | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 56c | 24.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5this page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. BillsBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.