NFL · resolved market

Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223468bbcf953c4bbb7f0b33abb1197fd57fd9bd404209d63b5cb82267488b34

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Billsof Chiefs, Bills
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,699
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,699 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x68df…4815backed Bills	50c	17,069$8,534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,534.42	181	56.9%103 W · 78 L	+11.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Chiefs	50c	15,247$7,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,696	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs	50c	10,241$5,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,107.37	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Chiefs	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	131	42%55 W · 76 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bills	50c	7,000$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,500	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bills	50c	6,666$3,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,333	240	56.7%136 W · 104 L	+19.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bills	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs	50c	5,343$2,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,667.92	335	53.4%179 W · 156 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Chiefs	50c	5,316$2,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,657.83	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-8.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Bills	51c	2,938$1,499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.74	99	49.5%49 W · 50 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills	49c	2,272$1,114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,158.65	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8156…27c2backed Bills	52c	2,140$1,111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,028.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	58cpaid	-35%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Chiefs	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bills	49c	1,575$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.56	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chiefs	50c	1,550$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ae…84cebacked Chiefs	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs	48c	1,019$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.68	412	48.5%200 W · 212 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Bills	51c	999.99$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	140	35%49 W · 91 L	-12.0wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Bills	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	167	37.7%63 W · 104 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd2…96b5backed Bills	52c	850$442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+48%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde60…15f1backed Chiefs	48c	785$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Bills	52c	770$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.6	163	46%75 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89cd…da69backed Chiefs	48c	680$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73ce…57b9backed Bills	52c	615$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.2	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Chiefs	47c	552.13$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.13	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Bills	52c	426.92$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.92	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bills	51c	386.44$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.48	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7745backed Chiefs	49c	384.65$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.48	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Bills	52c	381.28$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.28	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	+7.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs	49c	367$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.83	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Chiefs	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1901…c07fbacked Chiefs	49c	250$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	80	33.8%27 W · 53 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bills	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	-12.9wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Chiefs	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Chiefs	49c	220$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	105	37.1%39 W · 66 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Chiefs	48c	208$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Chiefs	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Bills	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Bills	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	133	47.4%63 W · 70 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Chiefs	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Bills	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x725c…01a1backed Chiefs	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+183.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ff…9c8dbacked Chiefs	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bills	51c	199.98$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.99	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chiefs	50c	198$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Chiefs	51c	197.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc64…6632backed Bills	52c	193.65$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.65	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Chiefs	49c	166$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.32	229	50.2%115 W · 114 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Chiefs	40c	162.77$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.11	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37f…6d0ebacked Bills	60c	162.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b2…0566backed Bills	51c	132.35$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.85	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Chiefs	49c	122.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Bills	51c	117.65$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.65	80	35%28 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bills	52c	112$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.76	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Chiefs	48c	111$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.75	414	50.5%209 W · 205 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Chiefs	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	223	49.8%111 W · 112 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Chiefs	10c	100.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	184	27.7%51 W · 133 L	-18.4wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Bills	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	130	65.4%85 W · 45 L	+17.2wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Chiefs	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4efb…76a0backed Chiefs	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea6…aed7backed Bills	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Bills	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15db…d7efbacked Bills	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a6c…3bfebacked Chiefs	50c	80.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.45	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-3.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Chiefs	49c	62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chiefs	50c	57$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Chiefs	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	297	51.5%153 W · 144 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e9…700bbacked Chiefs	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Chiefs	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e30…9dadbacked Chiefs	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30b7…1a2fbacked Bills	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbc…a8c1backed Bills	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+121.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Bills	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Bills	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Bills	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event