NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4be7c4d2ca69ddd7c09f28a77159baf057efa1c015ef8ec22b9fa6920b75038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc120…eab2backed Over | 53c | 1,796$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…1868backed Over | 53c | 1,449$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…233dbacked Under | 47c | 1,369$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 1,240$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.51 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…a8b2backed Under | 47c | 1,213$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…c8d0backed Over | 53c | 1,013$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2aa9backed Under | 47c | 988$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 872.94$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.39 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 829$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…33c0backed Over | 53c | 724$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…50d5backed Under | 47c | 583$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 64c | 494$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.96 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 477.93$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.69 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 40c | 420.58$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 312.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.68 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Over | 63c | 248.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 148.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5this page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. BillsBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.