NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cea8e3825d0e3d717d2f4b41f1a789965fa20d3f2af3b244acd8c9fa4e24f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Chiefs, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Chiefs | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Bills | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Chiefs | 52c | 548.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chiefs | 52c | 387.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.87 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Chiefs | 48c | 350.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 48c | 339.56$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bills | 47c | 285$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Chiefs | 53c | 285$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Bills | 49c | 277.81$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Chiefs | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…552cbacked Bills | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Bills | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bills | 58c | 146.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bills | 47c | 124.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chiefs | 13c | 124.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 53c | 107.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs | 51c | 102$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Chiefs | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chiefs | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Bills | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Chiefs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)this page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. BillsBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.