NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d3c5cd82f0407427a85e698ffaf73e1cd8542a0c8dfcfe54ba151400fedc4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed Under | 49c | 72,518$35,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,983.95 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 57,914$29,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,530.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 52,114$26,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,528.36 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 49,738$24,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,481.72 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 52c | 38,518$20,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,029.15 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 17,831$9,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,419.49 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 12,563$6,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,532.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 11,366$5,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.12 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 50c | 5,738$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.05 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 5,316$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.36 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 47c | 2,099$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.72 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 49c | 1,520$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.27 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…fcb0backed Over | 49c | 1,351$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 1,256$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.69 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,118$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.93 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…7c35backed Over | 49c | 1,101$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 937.5$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1386…ad63backed Under | 50c | 890$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 824.02$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.98 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 49c | 820$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.07 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…1192backed Over | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d563backed Under | 51c | 701$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…0af6backed Over | 50c | 680$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…8863backed Under | 51c | 650$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…eb57backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 52c | 577.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…130abacked Under | 50c | 510$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…e49fbacked Under | 51c | 501$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 10c | 400.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 49c | 310$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Over | 50c | 288$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 47c | 142$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Over | 53c | 113.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…a7e0backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 40.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…9055backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…3a17backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…d9adbacked Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5this page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. BillsBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.