NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4472c013f23b9f88a90f4a18346e3c9d3f5eee15f224c84b26242af83c96e589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 54c | 9,883$5,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,548.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 8,330$3,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,832 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 46c | 571.11$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.27 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 46c | 402.24$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 49c | 399.61$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 393.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 58c | 210$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 34c | 180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Under | 63c | 159.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 54c | 41.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 53.5this page
- Bills Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Chiefs vs. BillsBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 50.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Under won
- Chiefs vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.