Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f986a4159630926f884b8996b9d4a647d694adfac4ef95b550251235e11f822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d05…f421backed Team Spirit | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION | 69c | 5,468$3,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.1 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Team Spirit | 41c | 5,362$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.14 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…826cbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 4,965$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 33c | 4,914$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.98 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit | 29c | 2,836$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.39 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 2,796$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.07 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed PARIVISION | 67c | 2,676$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.27 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 2,364$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.64 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked PARIVISION | 57c | 1,930$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.82 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed PARIVISION | 60c | 1,670$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.79 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…f062backed Team Spirit | 49c | 1,288$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Team Spirit | 30c | 1,017$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.05 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Team Spirit | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION | 80c | 550$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 510.59$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.19 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Team Spirit | 49c | 429.31$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed PARIVISION | 56c | 355.89$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked PARIVISION | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed PARIVISION | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…dc41backed Team Spirit | 10c | 295.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION | 51c | 280.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Spirit | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed PARIVISION | 59c | 218.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Spirit | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Team Spirit | 52c | 193.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 143.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 137$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed PARIVISION | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Spirit | 26c | 115.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Spirit | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed Team Spirit | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…3aafbacked PARIVISION | 78c | 94.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed PARIVISION | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…bf0cbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 58.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…91b9backed PARIVISION | 72c | 56.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Team Spirit | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Team Spirit | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.