TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof PARIVISION, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$246,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29f9…e310backed PARIVISION48c21,631$10,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,376.0412256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit55c16,827$9,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,609.286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Spirit52c16,793$8,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,037.9812868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION28c13,796$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,922.672,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked PARIVISION47c11,445$5,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423.5419943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d05…f421backed PARIVISION0c10,977$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Spirit52c10,960$5,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,253.9653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed PARIVISION38c8,507$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.0814947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Spirit54c7,348$3,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.3414840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Spirit53c6,552$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.4813155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed PARIVISION48c6,500$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,13027645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked PARIVISION48c6,098$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.2121350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed PARIVISION47c6,083$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.7516050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Spirit54c6,051$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.7325444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Spirit52c5,240$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.3719047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Spirit55c4,512$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.918950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PARIVISION45c4,496$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.084645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Spirit50c3,999$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.519148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked PARIVISION50c3,974$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.4989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION45c3,802$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.1985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Team Spirit53c3,765$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.661566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION37c3,764$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.881,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION41c3,622$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.3834146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed PARIVISION54c3,284$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.9948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed PARIVISION1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Spirit54c2,933$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.58046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION48c2,905$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.7255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked PARIVISION51c2,435$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.787231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed PARIVISION46c2,158$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.6811253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed PARIVISION47c2,051$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.2518452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Spirit56c1,980$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9810451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Team Spirit52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0811557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION50c1,854$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9201,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed PARIVISION1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit52c1,793$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.4420159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked PARIVISION19c1,602$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed PARIVISION56c1,486$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.4823465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Team Spirit54c1,474$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.018349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked PARIVISION18c1,461$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5736851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked PARIVISION47c1,323$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62227143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Spirit40c1,299$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.4117342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Spirit53c1,278$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.8339936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Team Spirit52c1,083$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.761747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c8…698abacked PARIVISION1c1,082$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Team Spirit54c1,024$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.953655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked PARIVISION15c1,008$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Team Spirit53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47017852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Spirit52c995.5$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Team Spirit53c941.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.45642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION14c897$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0830138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked PARIVISION46c847.22$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.9660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed PARIVISION45c806.67$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Spirit52c800$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.2520642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked PARIVISION76c741$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.2414121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked PARIVISION36c720$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.862740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed PARIVISION46c688.01$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.916854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION25c616.16$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION48c599.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed PARIVISION38c559.29$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION48c546.41$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.2889440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked PARIVISION48c539.55$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4614251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa229…576ebacked PARIVISION75c513.97$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Team Spirit51c509.8$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.85078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION11c500.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.270236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Team Spirit51c500$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8e…349fbacked Team Spirit54c491.96$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.032556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Team Spirit53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.74573.3%33 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Spirit52c465$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.27047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Spirit72c453.85$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0616835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed PARIVISION45c440.07$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0349133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION45c436.41$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.394252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit50c423.51$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.7658152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION25c416.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8859250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed PARIVISION50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed PARIVISION52c386.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Team Spirit53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.363372.7%24 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION45c375.19$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.971,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked Team Spirit54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.376068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Team Spirit54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.376131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Team Spirit42c365.9$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.914244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Team Spirit55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.646175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Spirit55c350.47$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7146664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit54c339.9$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Team Spirit31c317.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.654341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Team Spirit55c315.53$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.994156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked PARIVISION10c309.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.643286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed PARIVISION46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1388037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…4588backed PARIVISION68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e47…3d20backed Team Spirit67c298.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.814065%26 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4619743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed PARIVISION29c287.04$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3320361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION42c264.84$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2356848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed PARIVISION78c262.18$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.59645.8%44 W · 52 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed Team Spirit44c256.82$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8211344.2%50 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION47c255$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb834…e4c1backed PARIVISION25c248.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Team Spirit54c236.62$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.775972.9%43 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked PARIVISION40c224.11$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.731540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed PARIVISION46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.229550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.