Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963ea59dd49b4d614cc3bec15434cf1613f51f523387e74964c76e9e9a4313a6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 1, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $823,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $421,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $823,010 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	66,855$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.6	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	42,101$2,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,778.14	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	0c	27,569$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	21,328$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.4	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes	0c	19,316$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	9,530$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	1c	9,218$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.09	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21dd…ca3abacked Yes	4c	7,806$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	1c	7,423$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes	5c	5,669$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.26	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x462e…2ab2backed Yes	2c	5,529$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,452$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.07	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	5,285$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.56	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	4,252$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	4,200$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	3,341$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.28	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	2c	3,238$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.55	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cd…8bc0backed Yes	1c	3,234$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fc…bb8ebacked Yes	2c	3,221$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	19c	3,203$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	5c	3,200$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.47	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	7c	3,180$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.85	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	3,154$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	2c	3,114$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.95	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	1c	3,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…64ebbacked Yes	3c	2,979$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.54	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,805$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	2c	2,725$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.45	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	2,718$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.61	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	1c	2,684$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.32	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,670$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.48	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	3c	2,607$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	13c	2,532$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.43	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,353$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	2c	2,300$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	16c	2,300$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7dd…bc48backed Yes	16c	2,211$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	4c	2,112$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	1c	2,078$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x029b…5937backed Yes	3c	2,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.32	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	-14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	1,767$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.78	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cff…079ebacked Yes	2c	1,728$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	18c	1,636$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	4c	1,633$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.4	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	3c	1,521$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.58	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	8c	1,500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	17c	1,496$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes	16c	1,458$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.7	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,411$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.23	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	3c	1,400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.73	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	15c	1,320$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes	3c	1,314$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	5c	1,297$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes	15c	1,212$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.11	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked Yes	3c	1,206$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d00…08b5backed Yes	2c	1,200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,187$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	4c	1,184$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	1,151$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.64	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	2c	1,112$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75ce…0a6fbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	15c	909.02$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.76	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…d63bbacked Yes	2c	907.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	2c	904.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6f…067bbacked Yes	2c	904.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	6c	900$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.06	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	6c	894.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.67	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed Yes	1c	849.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed Yes	4c	848.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	1c	842.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	4c	835.97$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	18c	833.33$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes	17c	832.46$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.52	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes	2c	827.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	16c	799.98$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc4…db9abacked Yes	3c	788.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb52…67ccbacked Yes	2c	759.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+251.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3c…b892backed Yes	3c	713.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	12c	709.96$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.09	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	2c	708.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes	3c	701.73$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Yes	13c	700$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8e…f36dbacked Yes	2c	693.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a0…0bcfbacked Yes	2c	689.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20f2…a981backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	598.91$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.38	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63e…9047backed Yes	3c	589.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+22%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ab…2b99backed Yes	3c	586.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…cd45backed Yes	3c	563.08$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	561$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.51	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	18c	558.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	4c	536.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	2c	519.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	4c	506.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event