Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ee07a12879d1144b400897c9f988a7f054e2a1e7637025b984bf9ed5585dfc

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,697 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	14,445$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…0b9bbacked Yes	0c	8,535$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,617$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0338…70cfbacked Yes	1c	2,387$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,821$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes	2c	1,727$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	9c	1,395$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.7	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes	4c	1,200$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	1,126$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.45	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…1d82backed Yes	1c	1,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes	4c	1,080$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	1,033$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	8c	992.2$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.72	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	573.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd4…8cc6backed Yes	4c	504.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	6c	420.34$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3731…fb76backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	3c	379.69$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	369.19$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bad…4ee8backed Yes	3c	324$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf5d…70e1backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	91	41.8%38 W · 53 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d5…e846backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd396…384dbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…8834backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…98b7backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cf…0e53backed Yes	8c	166.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	8c	158.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	11c	154.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Yes	10c	149.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	38cpaid	-70%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf72a…ac4fbacked Yes	9c	140$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-79%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c08…8bacbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7088…f1ebbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c99…76c8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event