Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fe504db468ac55c29bb59784df6c94e4c54977347b0565b2d1f972e47badfa

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $963,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $287,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $963,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	175,000$911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$911	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	130,086$1,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,601.95	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	57,211$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.21	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	23,000$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.6	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	20,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	18,539$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	14,987$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.35	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,924$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd68…3ca6backed Yes	0c	10,224$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed Yes	3c	8,950$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.55	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+116.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	8,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	6,374$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.22	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d9…f4dabacked Yes	12c	5,836$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,759$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0d…f030backed Yes	0c	4,801$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,676$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	4,158$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.72	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	3,776$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.89	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes	17c	3,512$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	10c	3,500$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.36	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	3,488$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	3,437$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	6c	3,400$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.96	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	3,195$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.92	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	3c	2,918$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.21	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	2,776$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.34	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes	8c	2,700$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c45…31c4backed Yes	3c	2,598$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	1c	2,398$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	2c	2,302$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.21	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	2,284$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	4c	2,201$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.59	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	3c	2,074$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.59	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,063$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	2c	2,052$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x725e…596bbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes	2c	2,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes	12c	1,865$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.45	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,844$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	13c	1,792$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	13c	1,749$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.34	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	2c	1,620$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	12c	1,500$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.96	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	3c	1,410$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	10c	1,201$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.6	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	4c	1,191$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.01	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	10c	1,150$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.7	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	3c	1,150$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.78	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,062$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	12c	1,000$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	10c	999.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	2c	943.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	13c	930$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.07	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	854.75$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.02	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac37…55eabacked Yes	3c	854.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	6c	849.97$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5992…40bfbacked Yes	4c	841.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	80	26.3%21 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	9c	800$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547f…016dbacked Yes	1c	799.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+96.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	724.83$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c2…1540backed Yes	9c	670$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.83	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…bc75backed Yes	2c	662.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Yes	2c	638.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	600.08$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.47	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	17c	576.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	11c	549.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.45	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	10c	542.68$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.73	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.85	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	495.37$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	10c	480$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.99	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	12c	466$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.06	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	4c	462.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes	14c	442.83$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	438.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	410.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fc…bb8ebacked Yes	8c	377.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	17c	371$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.28	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	370$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	6c	327.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	4c	310$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	9c	240.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	7c	207.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3c…19c2backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	173.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	10c	160$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	12c	159.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	148.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdde…e1ebbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event