Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd88a81f10039f77a98917bfbc3f7b700249f1938caa35d8ab0d9e65c1912b8dc

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $116,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes	1c	4,785$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-68%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,816$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,088$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x999e…d166backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	5c	1,524$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.41	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes	1c	1,478$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	5c	1,100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,044$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	2c	999.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cf…0e53backed Yes	3c	560$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	5c	500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd396…384dbacked Yes	5c	377.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5d…70e1backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event