Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7e4cc077bc250cf416a2cc148912ee9fc054de00091dde9f38a50f7b97b0f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof MOUZ, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55e…c136backed MOUZ | 0c | 10,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 12c | 8,012$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.61 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 49c | 7,771$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.97 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 39c | 7,264$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.84 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 6,554$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.14 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 4,940$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940.43 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed MOUZ | 38c | 4,690$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.67 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 4,464$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.71 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 3,879$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.3 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ | 28c | 2,486$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.27 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 2,400$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.24 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 45c | 2,323$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.11 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed MOUZ | 66c | 1,522$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 42c | 1,100$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.14 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked MOUZ | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Virtus.pro | 65c | 886.66$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.66 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 38c | 880.43$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 832.97$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.64 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 749.15$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.47 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 739.13$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ | 33c | 620.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 61c | 592.89$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.49 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…fe5dbacked MOUZ | 58c | 587.77$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Virtus.pro | 41c | 528.42$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.02 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Virtus.pro | 70c | 520.02$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ | 10c | 469.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Virtus.pro | 76c | 453.48$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed MOUZ | 35c | 405.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Virtus.pro | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Virtus.pro | 41c | 386.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.93 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked MOUZ | 73c | 368.36$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…8e04backed MOUZ | 65c | 329.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked MOUZ | 69c | 323.87$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ | 51c | 293.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed MOUZ | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Virtus.pro | 70c | 263.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 258.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked MOUZ | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…669abacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 195.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked MOUZ | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed MOUZ | 52c | 177.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked MOUZ | 61c | 170.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ | 79c | 168.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Virtus.pro | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Virtus.pro | 68c | 141.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed MOUZ | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed MOUZ | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked Virtus.pro | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed MOUZ | 36c | 134.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed MOUZ | 72c | 123.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed MOUZ | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 87.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed MOUZ | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked MOUZ | 16c | 81.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…27d0backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 79.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed MOUZ | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed MOUZ | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked MOUZ | 45c | 66.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed MOUZ | 54c | 42.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed MOUZ | 32c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…a75ebacked Virtus.pro | 79c | 31.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed Virtus.pro | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…8bf2backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f991backed MOUZ | 65c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.